2009 -- THE YEAR OF AVOIDING TROLLEYS

The 2009 MLB season is not yet a week old -- this is how I see it shaping up.

NL EAST

1. Philadelphia Phillies
The defending World Series Champions bring everyone back with the exception of the upgrade from Pat Burrell to Raul Ibanez. GM Ruben Amaro has helped keep the offensive core together -- an offense perfectly suited for the tin can that is Citizens Bank Park. A serious injury to ace Cole Hamels is the only thing that can derail the Phillies from another division title. That or...

2. Florida Marlins
This is another Marlins team stacked with young players. Hanley Ramirez, Dan Uggla, Emilio Benifacio, Ricky Nolasco, Josh Johnson, etc. This team will hit, and hit a lot -- it all comes down to the pitching. I'm an absolute believer in Nolasco and Johnson, add in Chris "Voltron" Volstad and Anibal Sanchez and the Marlins might have the best rotation in the division. Unless of course...

3. Atlanta Braves
Once again the Atlanta Braves are built around pitching. Derek Lowe and Javier Vazquez are arguably two no. 1 starters -- for a team with none a season ago (after Tim Hudson went down). Jair Jurrjens and Japanese import Kenshin Kawakami solidify a rotation that could be extremely impressive with the injured Hudson available. That's the good. Offense is the worst, there is no bad with this lineup -- it jumps to worst. The Braves outfield combined for about 25 homeruns last year. They have Chipper Jones, Brian McCann, Yunel Escobar and Kelly Johnson in the infield -- definitely good enough. But the season comes down to Jeff Francoeur's ability to bounce back from the worst season of his career, Jordan Schafer's ability to adjust to major league pitching and Garrett Anderson's ability to play 150 healthy games.

4. New York Mets
The Mets are back as one of the popular picks to win the NL East and even the World Series. I'm not buying it. They did improve the bullpen with single-season saves record holder Francisco Rodriguez and J.J. Putz, but it's not going to be enough. They have zero pitching -- it's Johan Santana and pray for rain. Mike Pelfrey is the no.2 -- he's more a four or five type. Oliver Perez was an abomination in the WBC, is overweight and has been even worse since his return, don't be surprised if he gets cut or sent down sometime this season. No pitching equals no playoffs -- I don't care how far David Wright and company can carry them.

5. Washington Nationals.

No pitching, no bullpen, no offense. They fired their GM about a month before the season because he gave more than $1M to a 19-year-old import who happened to be 25 and was using a fake name. The big off-season acquisition was Adam Dunn, a guy who has no idea how to win. This is the worst team in baseball.


NL Central

1. Chicago Cubs

This is probably the biggest "lock" of all the division winners. They basically get everyone back from a team with the best record in baseball -- and upgraded from Kosuke Fukudome to Milton Bradley. Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster and Rich Harden should be as good as any top 3 in baseball, add in two very solid lefties in Ted Lilly and Sean Marshall and the Cubs are very tough to beat. Kevin Gregg is the new closer as Kerry Wood is now in Cleveland, but if he falters Carlos Marmol is ready to close things out. This pick is a lock -- bet it in Vegas.

2. St. Louis Cardinals

Tony LaRussa just always finds a way to be competitive. They have the best player in baseball in Albert Pujols and my pick for bounce back player of the year in Khalil Greene. Ryan Ludwick and Rick Ankiel have a ton of power, helping super-rookie Colby Rasmus feel a little less pressure to produce right away offensively. Starting pitching is a question mark but the healthy return of Chris Carpenter coupled with the rising Adam Wainwright should be enough to help the Cardinals make a run at the Wild Card if the not the NL Central title.

3. Milwaukee Brewers

Offense, offense and more offense. Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Corey Hart, J.J. Hardy, Mike Cameron, Billy Hall, etc. -- it's almost too much offense. With any kind of pitching (like big years from Yovani Gallardo and Manny Parra) the Brewers could also compete for the Wild Card.

4. Cincinnati Reds

The Reds are trying to re-define themselves. Out goes Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey, Jr, in comes Willy Tavares, an everyday job for uber-prospect Jay Bruce and a healthy Alex Gonzalez at shortstop. This team wants to win with speed and defense, they just aren't good enough to do it. The pitching could be really good or really bad. Aaron Harang is coming off a 17-loss season -- who will the Reds get in 2009? Is Bronson Arroyo the player he was in the first half of the season or the second half? Too many questions and I hate Dusty Baker.

5. Houston Astros

I think I'm already regretting putting them behind the Reds. Their offense is much better with Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee and Hunter Pence. It's the pitching that scares me. Roy Oswalt has been on the decline for the past few season and needed a 2nd half renaissance to get himself straight. Wandy Rodriguez, Brian Moehler (BRIAN MOEHLER!), Mike Hampton (MIKE HAMPTON!!) and Russ Ortiz (RUSS ORTIZ!!!) round out the rotation -- if I were an Astros fan I'd want to kill myself. Now I don't feel so bad putting them behind the Reds.

6. Pittsburgh Pirates

They signed two Indian pitchers who have never played a game of baseball in their lives. Not former Cleveland Indians -- people from India. Pass.


NL West

1. Los Angeles Dodgers

Man-Ram is back in uniform and the Dodgers will be back in the playoffs. This is probably the most complete lineup in baseball: Russell Martin, James Loney, Orlando Hudson, Rafael Furcal, Casey Blake, Manny, Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier -- there are no holes. The lineup is hole-less. Pitching is a question mark right now but I honestly believe that Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda and Clayton Kershaw will make up one of the strongest top 3 in the entire NL by seasons end. Add in Jonathan Broxton throwing 100 mph to end things in the 9th and I'm all in.

2. Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona was one of the most -- if not the most -- disappointing teams in all of baseball last season. Young players like Justin Upton, Mark Reynolds and Chris Young ended up not being ready to play everyday at a high level. Brandon Webb and Dan Haren make a phenomenal 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation -- the question now is how injured is Webb. Arizona declined to offer him a long-term extension because of injury questions and if he can't come back this team is really finished.

3. San Francisco Giants

This once proud franchise has been built up and subsequently torn down by Barry Bonds. It's given out the worst contract in the history of professional sports to Barry Zito. It sported a lineup one year ago with every single starting player over the age of 30. Despite all that, they are starting to turn it around. Tim Lincecum could be the best pitcher in baseball already -- and he's just 25. Matt Cain, Noah Lowry, Jonathan Sanchez, Madison Bumgarner and Tim Alderson make up the best young pitching in all of baseball. Randy Johnson was brought in to help teach the game and keep them away from Barry Zito. They are going young at 1B, 2B, 3B and CF. Top-prospect and defending college baseball player of the year Buster Posey awaits in the minors. This team is on the rise and it could be sooner rather than later.

4. Colorado Rockies

Not far removed from the World Series the Rockies are still having the same problems -- pitching. Aaron Cook is not a no. 1 starter. Ubaldo Jimenez is not ready to be a no. 2 and how many more teams is Jason Marquis going to play for? Don't even think about mentioning the God awful trade of Matt Holiday, the team's only superstar, for a yo-yo, checkers board and wooden nickel. Clint Hurdle won't be the manager next season -- bet it in Vegas.

5. San Diego Padres

San Diego will battle Washington for the worst record in baseball. They have nothing. One offensive player -- Adrian Gonzalez -- that's seriously it. Most scouts have cooled on the idea of Chase Headley ever being a superior player. They have one starter -- Jake Peavy -- who wants out. I'd want out too. No one would show up to their games if they didn't play in a beautiful stadium in San Diego, CA.

Come back tomorrow for American League and Playoff predictions.