KENTUCKY DERBY TOP TEN

This class of 3-year-olds is not as strong as two years ago (Street Sense, Hard Spun, Curlin) but is definitely better than last year's crop (Big Brown and then no one else). Just like last year with the late Eight Belles I think a filly could have a huge impact on the first Saturday in May.

1. Rachel Alexandra

To me, this Hal Wiggins trained filly is the best 3-Y-O in the country. She's won her last three starts (two of them graded) by a combined 14 1/2 lengths -- and that includes the G.II Fair Grounds Oaks last week in which jockey Calvin Borel eased her up in the final 1/16M while still running in basically the exact same time as new "buzz" horse Friesan Fire.

Wiggins had said they would either run her in the Fantasy G.III at Oaklawn or train right up to the Kentucky Oaks, but ESPN broke the news yesterday that the Kentucky Derby door isn't shut just yet -- and it shouldn't be.

2a. Pioneerof the Nile

Another winner of three straight (all graded-stakes), this Bob Baffert trainee continues to get better himself, and be flattered by horses he's beaten. Some were disappointed by his most recent effort in the G.II San Felipe last week, but I find it hard to be disappointed by a win with Pioneerof the Nile's largest career margin of victory (1 1/4 lengths).

The horse has shown the ability to close late and stay close to the lead in a race with no pace -- demonstrating multiple tactics he could use in Kentucky. He's beaten I Want Revenge (winner of the Gotham G.III), Papa Clem (2nd in the Louisiana Derby G.II) and Chocolate Candy (winner of the El Camino Real Derby G.III) -- boosting his stock significantly.

2b. The Pamplemousse

These two horses are so close I had to put them into a tie for second with the slight edge going to Pioneerof the Nile because of trainer Bob Baffert (three Derby wins) and jockey Garrett Gomez (best jockey in the US). That's not saying Julio Canani can't train and Alex Solid can't ride, but experience can matter in the non-stop hoopla that is the Kentucky Derby.

Another winner of the three straight (two graded), The Pamplemousse has taken over Southern California with his style, dominance and connections. He blew past BC Juvenile runner-up Square Eddie in the G.III San Rafael and lead the entire way easily defeating a questionable field by six lengths in the G.III Sham.

Next up is "The Showdown" between Pioneerof the Nile and The Pamplemousse on April 4 in the G.I Santa Anita Derby -- which can be seen live on HRTV.

4. Dunkirk

This year's edition of Big Brown. Little experience as a 2-Y-O (none actually), two very impressive wins against Maiden and Allowance company, and up to this point -- no graded stakes earnings. This $3.7M Keeneland purchase has lived up to the hype with two visually outstanding performances.

It could be too-little too-late for the Todd Pletcher trainee as he probably needs to win the G.I Florida Derby on March 28 (ESPN) to get into the Derby's field of 20 -- just like Big Brown one year ago.

Jockey Garrett Gomez also rides -- so him and his agent Ron Anderson will have a big decision to make if both Dunkirk and Pioneerof the Nile make it to Churchill Downs.

5. Friesan Fire

A son of A.P. Indy, this colt has finally put it all together for trainer Larry Jones. He lost three straight after breaking his maiden at Delaware Park before sweeping the three Derby preps at the Fair Grounds in his last three starts. If it were anywhere else this horse would be higher on my list -- but in the last two years the Fair Grounds form has not held up.

Going back to Circular Quay two years ago and Pyro just last year, racing in the Bayou has been tough to figure out. He could not have been more impressive in his last win in the G.II Louisiana Derby and maybe I'm just being too critical at this point. Larry Jones has stated they could either run in the G.I Wood Memorial in New York or train right up to Derby on May 2.

6. I Want Revenge

By Stephen Got Even he should run all day. After two straight losses to Pioneerof the Nile and some questions from trainer Jeff Mullins and jockey Joe Talamo about how I Want Revenge handles the synthetic surface he was shipped to New York. It was the right choice as he absolutely romped in the G.III Gotham and looks to make his next start in G.I Wood Memorial.

He is about to be sold to IEAH, as they are sick with Derby Fever after last year's win with Big Brown.

7. Desert Party

Of all the King's horses and all the King's men -- Desert Party is the top contender coming out of Dubai for Sheikh Mohammed. I really like the fact that he has continuously improved since his 2-Y-O start at Arlington Park with trainer Eoin Harty -- a guy I have an immense amount of respect towards as a horseman.

My colleague Jeff Siegel (the best horse racing analyst I've ever known) has been on this horse since his 4 1/2 F maiden win in Chicago and there is no reason to let off now.

Frankie Dettori -- probably the World's top jockey -- gets the mount again this Saturday March 28 in the UAE Derby on Dubai World Cup. You can see it live on HRTV.

8. Old Fashioned

Was at the top of almost everyone's list until about a week ago when he got upset by 50-1 longshot Win Willy in the G.II Rebel at Oaklawn. He was previously undefeated in four career starts by a combined margin of victory of 26 1/2 lengths. This horse needs to be on or near the lead -- perfect in a field of 20.

I'm not as thrown off by his most recent loss as some others because he was in an unbearable speed duel before being caught by a late closer. Old Fashioned still beat the third place finished by about eight lengths -- without Win Willy he is probably still everyone's Derby Favorite.

I drop him in the rankings because he was tiring in a 1 1/16M race and I question his ability to get the 1 1/4M. I also do not like the decision to fire jockey Ramon Dominguez in favor of Terry Thompson.

9. Papa Clem

I put him on this list because I think he could finish in the top ten of the Kentucky Derby, but he is the first horse on this list that I don't think has a legitimate shot at winning the race. This Smart Strike colt had his chances to beat some top some class horses (Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire) but has come up short each time.

He is a grinder and a fighter but just has a little too much Hard Spun in him -- very nice horse -- just never able to get over that hump.

10. Al Khali

The great unknown. By Medaglio D'Oro, WinStar purchased this colt after a couple of nice wins in Peru. Yes...Peru. He's made just one start for Todd Pletcher, and while it was not as impressive as his stablemate Dunkirk, it was a win. A win in which the horse probably needed a race after a long-long layoff.

Just like Dunkirk he has zero graded earnings and needs to win the G.I Wood Memorial to get into the Derby.


Look for this list to be updated as we near the first Saturday in May. I will be in Kentucky all week long with daily updates on what's going on from Churchill Downs.